How not to lose an already-won election
Democrats: let’s not blow it this time.
We surely don’t want to relive the horror of the night of November 8, 2016. We believed the polls and, like her or love her or hate her, Hillary was going to be the next president.
Fast forward. Joe Biden looks 90% probable and Donald Trump only 10% likely to be the next president.
Anything could happen. And probably will. Russia’s meddling could take on a new form and completely blindside the media and the electorate until its game is played, and the tilt light comes on, too late. Joe Biden could implode, either by self-made disaster or by manufactured fake disaster, or both. Agent Orange could start a war in October and declare martial law, cancel elections, and that was that.
I don’t want to lambast candidates, or dissect Hillary’s campaign, or predict woeful mistakes in Biden’s campaign. Let’s talk instead about swing voters. This is where it’s at. In 2008, about 20 million swing voters were attracted to Barack Obama’s message of hope, change, and “Yes we can”. They gave him a chance. Some had to hold their noses as they weren’t sure about his muslim-sounding name, others were nervous about their guns being taken away. Others half believed the death squad stories put out by Sarah Palin’s loony toon tent. But they voted for Obama.
In 2016, many of these very same people took a look at the picture, and yes, if you’re a democrat you can’t fathom this and you can’t explain it, but they voted for Donald Trump the liar, mobster, conman, idiot and chief divider. You find this so morally corrupt that your only plausible reaction is to damn these swing voters and cast them away as evil, degenerate knuckle-draggers who love racism and hate women, gays, artists and poor people. They are your basket of deplorables.
But these are the people we need in our tent. They are not evil, racist, degenerate or even stupid. They are swing voters and they come in several distinct flavors, and we need to understand them before we can speak credibly about politics and the electorate.
Here’s how democrats can help not blow the election, even if it’s half in the bag already:
Respect people who don’t agree with you. Cancel culture is childish and idiotic. There’s nobody left after you’re done blasting people for their ideological errors. Let a second amendment stalwart have his say, and smile while you allow him his opinion and suggest you agree to disagree.
Don’t be sanctimonious. It has never worked as a way to make friends and it never will. There is no moral higher ground. There is only personal belief, personal choices and and opinion we hold today. Smarter people are more able to change their position when they learn new facts. Few people ever change stance when attacked and called stupid. Talk to people as your equal, and put your halo away, it’s not your friend.
Stop your victims and villains narrative. Trade it in for a friendly and inclusive message that says “We want you in our tent because together we can save America”. If you held a magic sentiment analyzer as you spew your virtuous speech about the evil tech companies, the corrupt financial institutions, the white privilege we keep denying, and the other blanket theories you espouse, you would see your numbers decline as you lose the allegiance among the polite friends still listening to your babble. You may even be right on most of your hot issues. It doesn’t matter. Your delivery is broken. You’re losing friends every time you open your mouth.
Most Americans are great people. They work hard, love their families and friends, they treat their neighbors and colleagues with care and respect, and they thrive on kindness, optimism and hope. Swing voters are generally all of the above. They may live in deep red pockets and decline to comment much on politics, but when they vote they will vote blue as long as they feel in their hearts that on election day, blue is better than red. They vary in their reasons for not committing to a party. There’s the blue-blood gun owner, and the Christian who wants a fair and charitable government but can’t get unstuck on the abortion question. There’s the military-minded patriot who generally prefers a free, liberal society but can’t back a peacenik president. And of course there’s your “socially liberal, fiscally conservative” whom you like to call a sellout and copout. These people won’t come over to a holier-than-thou blue tent. They would rather hold their noses and stick with the dictator. All of them are able to vote for Joe Biden if the smell of virtuous pedantic progressives isn’t too strong.
We seem to be unaware of our personal responsibilities as we speak about politics on social media and among friends of diverse political persuasion, as well as how we come across to those who aren’t onboard. Our message may be factually sound, but also very off-putting. This does matter, because there will never be a democrat president who didn’t win the bulk of the swing vote. Not in 2020, not ever.
