A divided America cannot recover from coronavirus depression.
America has bounced back from the hardest of hard times, on many occasions. The dust bowl, the great depression, the mafia rule it created with prohibition, and more. It should bounce back from coronavirus, based on track record.
Maybe not. Leading up to this pandemic and ensuing lockdown, our society has been more deeply divided than at any time in the country’s history. Families of modest income, living in the same street and divided only by the color of their party loyalties, feel an intense mistrust and even hatred of each other, even though by most counts they share more similarities than differences. Both are poor, struggling, and most likely unhappy with their healthcare costs. Both are debt-laden and have no savings. Both feel their elected politicians aren’t really getting it done.
Now we face a new enemy. We know it’s possible to beat coronavirus if we pull together. Lockdowns are devastating for the economy, so the government could sponsor a massive program to boost small business owners’ confidence, help public companies access funding, and help displaced individuals quickly get financial help before too much financial damage is done.
Before we fling mud, let me say that Republicans have done some things right, and have better answers on a few specific issues, and Democrats have demonstrated passionate support for workers, families and the vulnerable, and some Democrat governors have been stellar in their leadership through the crisis so far.
Now to the gaps. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus response has been a disgrace. GOP senators failing to help him lift his game, shameful. The SBA has run out of money while it appears to have funded more large and medium enterprises than actual small businesses, and it’s unclear that there hasn’t been a massive money heist of $345Bn right before our eyes.
Democrats can be heard wailing about unemployed people, the homeless, the undocumented, and generally caring a lot about our least fortunate brethren. Fine. They need someone fighting for them.
What about the middle? Who is fighting for the middle class families? Who is campaigning to ensure there are enough funds to help restaurants, gyms, salons, retail outlets, plumbing companies, general contractors and consulting firms survive and remain open when we start going back to work? This is the engine of any country. The Fortune 500 is not the engine, it is the financial nerve center, but not the engine of the economy. If half of our small businesses die, so does our country. Most will not come back. The owners will have slipped from middle class to poor class, and will not be competent to manage their restaurants and law firms and marketing agencies after they’ve lost their homes, their savings, and have moved in with their less unfortunate siblings. It will take 8–10 years to fill the gap. Large corporations have no interest or capabilities to enter the small business and services economy. Safeway isn’t going to open a laundromat that Ahmed left shuttered.
We have been played. The two party system served itself, nobody else. The media outlets made lots of money telling the blue people how terrible the red people were, and vice versa. The only winners were the “Classe Politica” the political classes, who would have less junk news to peddle if we had respect and decency in the house and senate.
What will happen? The United States will lose a very large slice of its middle class demographic. A group that has already been hollowed out over two decades, may soon be an endangered species. Most will fall into the chronically poor demographic, either in urban or rural flavor. Some will be able to climb back out, with help from friends and family, or a bank loan and some credit card stretch. Most will be too damaged to regain their places welcoming customers, hiring cooks or buying inventory. The social impact of the massive poor wave will be horrific. Violence, extortion, gang activity and theft will increase. Quality of life will plummet. Confidence in government will evaporate. Police will be overwhelmed and begin to act like police in broken countries like Guatemala, Brazil, Philippines: corrupt, brutal and beholden to organized crime.
How does a country recover from this? I can’t think of a country that regained a high quality of life after suffering great poverty.
Don’t recover: avoid. The key to success here is to avoid falling into a giant depression. I suggest that protecting the small business owners it bigger and more important than buying masks. We can avoid a ten year dark patch, if we can do enough for local small businesses to stay alive and keep their people.
