12 Month Predictions — November 2020

You may not like this….

• The US economy will grow by a puny 1.5% year over year, after a pretty horrible but surprisingly not completely awful 2020.

• Trump will be gone from the White House, but not gone from our news feed, and Trumpism isn’t going anywhere. The traditional conservative community will split: some will distance themselves from Trump, while others will stay loyal. The Trump base and the alt-right broadcast outlets will intensify on the platform to rally the base and incite action against ‘leftist communist terrorists’.
• Business will be “reasonably good” for most corners of America except for the obvious Covid-affected industries. There will be a semi-effective stimulus, a tide that will fail to lift all boats but the overall numbers will see a net positive, despite many casualties, especially in small business.
• Work from home will morph into three categories: permanent home workers, split-week work from home but go to the office 1–2 days, and those who will return full time to the office full time. New solutions will emerge to help parents and families in cramped conditions, including affordable and subsidized local workspaces. These will be easily available after a rash of closures in retail and other factors yielding lots of commercial real estate inventory.